<h1 style="text-align: center;">Female Divorce Risk Calculator</h1>
<p style="text-align: center;"><img src="https://media.istockphoto.com/id/1308567174/photo/divorce-property-division-split-paper-man-and-woman-broken-calculator-on-purple-background.jpg?s=612x612&w=0&k=20&c=nDLpaun7zWpxxcLSJ13jem0kvvh4yESsMnU7AiRDhVw=" alt="" width="800" /></p>
<p>Given the current sky-high divorce rates, and the fact that the majority of divorces are filed by women, there is a strong need to minimize the risk that your marriage will end in <a href="https://blog.loveawake.com/2020/03/30/80-20-why-affairs-dont-make-sense/">divorce or separation</a>.</p>
<p>For that reason, I used data from the 2006-2010 <a href="http:/www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg.htm">National Survey of Family Growth</a> cycle to create a binomial logistic model for the risk of a woman's first marriage resulting in divorce or separation within 10 years.</p>
<h2>Key Factors That Influence Divorce Risk</h2>
<p>The most important variables for predicting divorce/separation turned out to be age at marriage (under 21 did worse than average while over 25 better than average), status of college education, attitudes towards divorce, virginity, and whether the woman was catholic or not.</p>
<p>Controlling for these and other variables in the model, variables that were <strong>not</strong> statistically significant included race, religion or lack thereof (unless the woman was Catholic), and whether the woman married over 30 (as long as she married over 25).</p>
<p>I'll write up a formal (but anonymous) paper some time for easy citations, and the paper will also include premarital partner count in the model. In the calculator below, I have left out premarital partner count because it cannot be reliably determined in real life.</p>
<p>I should also note that if there is significant interest, I could do a similar study for male divorce risk sometime. However, I expect that the results would be qualitatively (though perhaps not quantitatively) similar.</p>
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<h2>Example Profiles And Their Predicted Risks</h2>
<p>It is interesting to look at how a couple of examples fare under this model. We may plug in a stereotypical traditional Catholic from a stable family, who avoids college and gets married young after waiting till marriage to have sex, and holds strongly conservative beliefs and wants her husband to prioritize career over family life. Her divorce/separation risk turns out to be only 19%. At the other end of the spectrum we could look at a stereotypical liberal who also comes from an intact family, but rides the carousel while pursuing a college degree and waits till after 25 to get married. She has strongly liberal beliefs and believes a man should spend time with his family while the strong independent wife focuses on her career. She has a divorce/separation risk of 44% (close to average)! The ideal woman to minimize divorce risk would be someone who has very strong <a href="https://blog.loveawake.com/2025/06/03/how-to-know-youre-ready-for-the-next-step-in-your-relationship/">family values</a> and <a href="https://blog.loveawake.com/2018/06/20/im-a-23-year-old-virgin-will-that-freak-guys-out/">waits till marriage to have sex</a>, but gets a college degree and delays marriage into she is mature in her mid-late 20s.</p>
<p>Anyways, without further ado, below is the divorce risk calculator. Make sure you answer all the questions to get a valid prediction.</p>
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